Why Democrats Are Continuing To Trounce Republicans—And Will Likely Keep Doing So In 2024

America Rises Post #12: Saturday, September 23rd, 2023

In a special election held last Tuesday to fill a Republican-held seat in the New Hampshire state House, Democratic candidate Hal Rafter defeated Republican James Guzofski 56% to 44%. If Democrats win one more seat in November in a solidly blue district, this will result in Democrats having enough votes to tie Republicans in the New Hampshire House (198-198; with two independents and two additional seats still vacant). This will formally end full GOP control of NH state government.

This is just the latest example in an indisputable trend of Democrats outperforming in special elections, which could be a harbinger of a very good year for them in 2024. Consider that Rafter defeated Guzofski in a New Hampshire district that is 6 points more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole, according to a weighted average of the 2016 and 2020 results in the district. And yet Rafter won by 12 points! (18-point Democratic overperformance). That is a big deal.